Past and Future Storm-Driven Changes to a Dynamic Sandy Barrier System: Outer Cape Cod, Massachusetts

Sandy barrier systems are highly dynamic, with the most significant natural morphological changes to these systems occurring during high-energy storm conditions. These systems provide a range of economic and ecosystem benefits and protect inland areas from flooding and storm impacts, but the persistence of many coastal barriers is threatened by storms and sea-level rise (SLR). This study employed observations and modeling to examine recent and potential future influences of storms on a sandy coastal barrier system in Nauset Beach, MA. Drone-derived imagery and digital elevation models (DEMs) of the study area collected throughout the 2023–2024 winter revealed significant alongshore variability in the geomorphic response to storms. Severe, highly localized erosion (i.e., an erosional “hotspot”) occurred immediately south of the Nauset Bay spit as the result of a group of storms in December and January. Modeling results demonstrated that the location of the hotspot was largely controlled by the location of a break in a nearshore sandbar system, which induced larger waves and stronger currents that affected the foreshore, backshore and dune. Additionally, model simulations of the December and January storms assuming 0.3 m (1 ft) of SLR showed the system to be relatively resistant to major geomorphic changes in response to an isolated storm event, but more susceptible to significant overwash and breaching in response to consecutive storms. This research suggests that both very strong isolated storm events and sequential moderate storms pose an enhanced risk of major overwash, breaching, and possibly inlet formation today and into the future, raising concern for adjacent communities and resource managers.