Period of the “Envelope” of the Maximum of Reliable Cycles of a Series of Wolf Numbers and the Image of Increased/Decreased Solar Activity Epochs

The presence of groups of cycles with larger/smaller amplitudes and alternation of these groups suggests the existence of a long-period solar activity (SA) cycle with epochs of increased/decreased activity. Since SA and its changes significantly influence climate and humans across the near-Earth space, it is reasonable to have a portrait (template) that reflects the main characteristics of these groups, making it possible to qualitatively and semiquantitatively assesses of SA epochs in the past and future. In the study, the properties of epochs SA of maximum/minimum are determined by the characteristics of reliable cycles 10–23 (14 cycles, a total period of 153 years, and the relationship between the amplitude of the cycles and their duration is taken into account). The formation of the pattern is based on the “envelope” of the maxima of these cycles. The possibility of correcting the Dalton minimum is discussed and a long-term forecast of SA is constructed.

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Journal
Geomagnetism and Aeronomy
Published
2024-12-01
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1134/s0016793224700294
Primary Topic
Global Energy and Sustainability Research
Type
article
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article

Period of the “Envelope” of the Maximum of Reliable Cycles of a Series of Wolf Numbers and the Image of Increased/Decreased Solar Activity Epochs

A.I. Shibaev, I. G. Shibaev
Geomagnetism and Aeronomy
Global Energy and Sustainability Research
article

Period of the “Envelope” of the Maximum of Reliable Cycles of a Series of Wolf Numbers and the Image of Increased/Decreased Solar Activity Epochs

A.I. Shibaev, I. G. Shibaev
article en

Abstract

The presence of groups of cycles with larger/smaller amplitudes and alternation of these groups suggests the existence of a long-period solar activity (SA) cycle with epochs of increased/decreased activity. Since SA and its changes significantly influence climate and humans across the near-Earth space, it is reasonable to have a portrait (template) that reflects the main characteristics of these groups, making it possible to qualitatively and semiquantitatively assesses of SA epochs in the past and future. In the study, the properties of epochs SA of maximum/minimum are determined by the characteristics of reliable cycles 10–23 (14 cycles, a total period of 153 years, and the relationship between the amplitude of the cycles and their duration is taken into account). The formation of the pattern is based on the “envelope” of the maxima of these cycles. The possibility of correcting the Dalton minimum is discussed and a long-term forecast of SA is constructed.

Geomagnetism and AeronomyVol. 64(7)
Lomonosov Moscow State University (RU), Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation (RU)
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 84%
Global Energy and Sustainability Research
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Period of the “Envelope” of the Maximum of Reliable Cycles of a Series of Wolf Numbers and the Image of Increased/Decreased Solar Activity Epochs — A.I. Shibaev, I. G. Shibaev · Geomagnetism and Aeronomy (2024) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS