Understanding Shifts in U.S. Public Opinion on Cross-Strait Relations through Social Media during Tsai Ing-wen’s Presidency

This study examines the shifts of U.S. public opinion on Cross-Strait relations during the first and second terms of Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen. Employing a mixed-methods approach that integrates descriptive statistics, sentiment analysis, and topic modeling of Facebook data using R programming, the research identifies significant shifts in audience engagement, sentiment dynamics, emotional responses, and thematic discourse. In Tsai’s first term, public discussions were characterized by moderate engagement, a predominance of negative sentiment, and a focus on political tensions and regional conflicts. Conversely, the second term exhibited a substantial increase in both positive and negative sentiments, with a notable surge in positive sentiment and intensified emotional expressions such as trust and fear. Thematic discussions expanded to encompass broader geopolitical issues, including U.S. support and global perspectives on Cross-Strait relations. Applying theoretical frameworks of Agenda-Setting Theory, Framing Theory, and Emotional Contagion Theory, the study interprets these shifts as a result of increased media salience, framing effects, and the amplification of emotions through social networks. The findings demonstrate how social media discourse reflects and potentially influences U.S. public opinion on Cross-Strait relations, highlighting the critical role of digital platforms in shaping perceptions and policy considerations in international relations.