ASEAN's Independent Path in the Indo-Pacific: Hedging against China’s Dual Strategy of Coercion and Inducement

Since its establishment ASEAN’s core goals included deterring great power intervention and establishing itself as the primary agenda setter in Southeast Asia. Two key policies, imparity, or non-alignment, and autonomy, or reducing external influence, have been crucial to ASEAN’s success. However, ASEAN faces significant challenges, particularly in managing China’s dual strategy of coercion and inducement. China’s increasing economic and military power has enabled it to exert significant influence over ASEAN member states. Through coercion and inducement China has exploited ASEAN’s shallow institutionalism and undermined its institutional confidence. This interference has been particularly evident in issues like the South China Sea disputes, where ASEAN’s unity has been tested. This study explores how ASEAN can hedge against China’s coercive and inducement strategies through complex engagement and enmeshment. By conceptualizing the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP) as a tool for enmeshment, the study aims to analyze China’s interference in ASEAN’s processes and evaluate the AOIP’s potential as a hedging mechanism. Understanding and addressing these challenges are crucial for ASEAN’s continued stability and relevance in the face of growing geopolitical risks in the region.