Impact of Arctic Sea Ice Changes on LNG Shipping in the Context of Rising Global Energy Demand

The need for and demand for energy rises quickly as the world's population grows and economic growth quickens as well. Given the rising need for energy worldwide, liquefied natural gas, or LNG, is playing a significant role in energy transportation. Russia has a lot of gas. Russia plays a significant role in the LNG trade. The Northern Sea Route has opened due to the melting of the Arctic Sea's ice due to global warming. There is great potential for LNG transportation in the area. EViews was employed in this study to ascertain the connection between Arctic Sea ice and LNG ship movement in the NSR. The data was prepared using the Vector Autoregressive Model and the Granger Causality Test. The outcome of the analysis was the correlation between Arctic Sea ice and LNG ship traffic. LNG ship traffic in the NSR in 2023, 2024, and 2025 was estimated using the Census X-12 Method, and the 5-year (2018–2022) dataset of LNG ships departing the Russian port of Sabetta was analyzed. According to this data, by 2025, an estimated 27.03% more LNG tankers will be visiting the Russian Arctic port of Sabetta.