Application of Foresight Analysis Methods for Food Supply Research

This article discusses the possibilities of using foresight analysis methods in relation to the issue of food supply. Taking into account the fact that food markets are a rather complex object of study, and food supply depends not only on quantitative (volume of consumption, total calorie intake), but also qualitative parameters (quality of nutrition, structure and macronutrient composition of the food basket, provision of micronutrients, etc.), using only quantitative, economic and statistical methods for analysis is inappropriate. The best effect can be achieved by foresight techniques that take into account non-trivial, deep connections and allow a more comprehensive look at the phenomenon under consideration. Taking into account the above, the authors systematized modern approaches to foresight analysis, considered the most effective methods, such as identifying weak signals and wild card events, and also identified the features of using these methodological approaches for analyzing food markets, which are subject to a wide range of difficult to predict climatic and technogenic factors, as well as factors of geopolitical and macroeconomic nature. An emphasis on identifying implicit connections, and also predicting key reference points that can have a decisive impact on the development of food markets, can help improve economic resilience in the face of emerging global food crises. Thus, the study allows us to conclude that the use of modern foresight analysis methods for studying food supply issues is highly relevant. Identification of weak signals and wild card events can allow a more rational and realistic approach to constructing scenarios for the development of food industry sectors, as well as early identification of potential threats that could destabilize the situation and have a significant negative impact on the level of food supply, both at the level of individual countries and in the world at large.