Determining the Possibility of Lending to Medium-Sized Businesses under the Sanctions Regime

The article discusses the issue of crediting medium-sized companies in the current economic situation under the influence of sanctions. It examines the specifics of lending to these companies under such conditions. The author used methods such as complex analysis and system analysis. The paper considers the impact of economic restrictions on the Russian economy over the past decade, with a focus on sanctions imposed since 2022. Complex analysis allowed identifying the impact of sanction pressure on the crediting process. System analysis helped establish internal links between risks associated with lending under sanctions and decision-making regarding lending to individual borrowers. A list of the main risks associated with the implementation of a credit mechanism for companies borrowing from banks under the sanctions regime was formulated. The article explores the transformation of trade in trucks and other specialized equipment under economic constraints, as well as the tools banks use to assess the possibility of lending to these borrowers in current conditions. The article highlights the features of car dealerships and analyzes the truck market in 2023: 144,000 new trucks were sold in the first 12 months of 2023, accounting for 3.9 % of the overall cargo market in the country. There has been a shortage of heavy-duty tractors, estimated at 40,000 units. The top-selling tractor brands were identified – domestic Kamaz and Chinese brands such as Dongfeng, Shacman, Howo, and Sitrak. Historical information is presented on the development of the truck market since 2022, including the role of credit institutions in promoting Chinese models. The activities of a Russian freight transport dealer (the name and location of the company are confidential and subject to bank privacy) are analyzed using the author’s risk assessment method to determine the potential for lending to this business.