Explore the Prediction of Formative Assessment to Academic Success in Blended Learning: A Case Study

The objective of this study is to predict students' final achievement based on their ongoing engagement and formative assessment results within learning management systems (LMSs). This study incorporates ongoing assessment performance as a key factor in measuring student engagement and predicting final exam performance. The results indicate that in the blended teaching process, firstly, including ongoing engagement activities in the final assessment has a positive effect on final exam scores. Secondly, the predictive effect of multiple continuous tasks is superior to that of a single continuous task, and ongoing engagement activities are better predictors of final exam scores than formative assessments. Thirdly, using a standard level as a reference for prediction yields relatively high accuracy, while using an average level as a reference can better identify at-risk students. Therefore, it is recommended that instructors comprehensively incorporate continuous tasks that can reflect students' engagement into the final assessment in blended courses.