EXTENDING THE HYBRID SEIR MODEL WITH VITAL DYNAMICS: INSIGHTS FROM MONKEY POX OUTBREAKS IN THE US AND EUROPE

The Mpox outbreak has ignited new interest in using infectious disease modeling to predict its future trajectory. Building on our previous study of the Mpox epidemic in the United States, this study applies an enhanced Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model to the outbreak in Europe. By incorporating vital dynamics, such as births and deaths, the model accounts for long-term population changes and offers a realistic long-term representation of infection dynamics. This follow-up analysis extends the insights from the US study to explore regional differences in transmission patterns, peak infection periods, and the eventual decline of the outbreak.Our findings provide a comparative perspective on the effectiveness of public health interventions in Europe versus the United States, highlighting the importance of early interventions and strategic planning for long-term epidemic control. This follow-up study validates the robustness of the enhanced SEIR model across regions and provides critical insights for health authorities to refine mitigation strategies.