Reliability Assessment of AIS Base Stations System on Dynamic Bayesian Network

As a navigational aid system, AIS plays a crucial role in enhancing maritime safety and communication by significantly reducing the risk of ship collisions and ensuring the smooth flow of maritime traffic. Current research on AIS reliability primarily focuses on the user side, with limited attention given to the service side. However, a failure on the service side can lead to substantial, unpredictable losses. This paper addresses the reliability of AIS base stations by statistically calculating the failure and repair rates of key components, based on alarm messages from AIS base stations in the northern sea area in 2023, combined with historical maintenance data. Then, on the basis of considering the impact of common cause failure on equipment performance, a more complete reliability assessment model of AIS base station is constructed by using fault tree analysis and dynamic Bayesian network model, and the simulation results of the shore station under different maintenance strategies are analyzed. The simulation results show that an effective maintenance strategy can significantly improve the reliability of AIS shore station operation and provide an important guarantee for the safety of maritime transportation.