MODELING THE MONKEY POX OUTBREAK WITH THE REFINED SEIR MODEL INCLUDING VITAL DYNAMICS FOR THE US

The Monkeypox (Mpox) outbreak has renewed interest in using infectious disease modeling to predict and manage its spread. In this study, we apply an enhanced Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model to the Mpox epidemic in the United States, incorporating vital dynamics such as births and deaths to account for long-term population changes. By extending the traditional SEIR framework, our model captures more realistic infection dynamics, offering deeper insights into transmission patterns, peak infection periods, and the eventual decline of the outbreak. This approach aims to provide a clearer understanding of Mpox transmission dynamics and to assist health authorities in developing strategies to mitigate the spread. Our findings highlight the importance of early interventions and illustrate the potential for long-term epidemic control through strategic planning The SEIR model provides a basic framework for understanding the evolution of an epidemic [4] that divides the population into four segments: Susceptible (S), Exposed (E), Infectious (I), and Recovered (R). To model infectious diseases like Mpox more realistically, especially over an extended period, it is important to include vital dynamics, such as birth and death rates, in the SEIR model.