The Elite Paradigm Driving Australian Aid Policy: Learning to Live With the ‘Cautious Consensus’

ABSTRACT This article explores the underlying reasons for why the Albanese Labor Governmentʼs stated policy ambition to ‘rebuild Australiaʼs international development program’ has not yet been accomplished and is unlikely to be realised, at least in the near‐to‐medium term. Based on interviews conducted with 21 Australian Members of Parliament, we find that the ‘cautious consensus’—a collection of ideas guiding elite perspectives on Australian aid policy that emerged during the COVID‐19 pandemic—has rapidly consolidated, to the point where it can now be considered a paradigm. We identify three main factors that have led to this consolidation: the declining salience of aid; growing elite scepticism about the usefulness of aid; and a combination of political challenges that are difficult for Labor to navigate, as it seeks to become a long‐term Government. Given the prospects of shifting the unambitious status quo are unlikely in the in the near‐to‐medium term, we examine what ‘living with the cautious consensus’ means for the Australian development sector.