Forecast modeling of the dynamics of main resources and construction of a simulation system for managing the activities of the regional energy system of the Samara region

Regional energy systems are complex dynamic systems that operate in conditions of constant changes in the external environment. In this regard, the task of developing complex management decisions and conducting a systemic analysis of the efficiency of its activities arises. To solve this problem, it is necessary to improve the mathematical models of the dynamics of capital, labor and fuel resources, since they have the greatest impact on the energy output of the energy system. The paper analyzes existing methods of mathematical description of the dynamics of basic resources and their shortcomings. The paper considers covariance-stationary models of time series in the form of difference equations with a deterministic polynomial trend. The paper presents the results of mathematical modeling of the dynamics of capital, labor and fuel resources based on statistical data on the activities of the energy system of the Samara Region, published in the annual reports of regional ministries and energy companies, and conducts a statistical analysis of them. Based on a comparative analysis of mathematical models, the most effective models of the dynamics of capital, labor and fuel resources with the best predictive qualities were selected. Also, in the work, a single-loop simulation model of the energy system management system was constructed by forming investments for the renewal of capital resources and the structure of the decision support system (DSS) was developed, allowing the formation of mathematically sound management decisions.