Empirical Analysis of Key Factors Influencing China's Grain Production Capacity

China, as the world's most populous country, is also its largest consumer of grain. Ensuring grain security is vital for national stability and economic development, underpinning socioeconomic progress. Since the reform and opening-up period, China's grain production has doubled, successfully mitigating challenges such as the global grain crisis in 2006 and the food crisis triggered by COVID-19 in 2020. However, this achievement has come at a cost, with grain output heavily reliant on practices that deplete soil fertility and involve excessive use of pesticides and fertilizers, causing significant environmental strain. This study investigates the factors influencing China's grain production from 1980 to 2020, aiming to evaluate its comprehensive production capacity and provide practical recommendations. The analysis integrates theoretical and empirical approaches. Theoretically, the study examines the effects of variables such as irrigated arable land area (X1, thousand hectares), agricultural machinery power (X2, ten thousand kilowatts), grain sowing area (X3, thousand hectares), fertilizer consumption (X4, ten thousand tons), and natural population growth rate (X5, percentage) on grain output. Empirically, it utilizes principal component analysis and model testing through Eviews, incorporating five grain-related indicators. The findings reveal that the influence of these factors shifts across different stages of grain production and development. Based on the results, the paper offers targeted strategies to enhance China’s grain production capacity sustainably.