Vanguard and laggard rural population clusters in Latvia

Previous studies have shown stark differences in terms of demographic development among rural municipalities of Latvia. Application of the non-hierarchical cluster analysis methodology allowed classifying distinct groups of municipalities based on their demographic potential and vulnerabilities. This study aims to provide an update to the demographic typology of rural municipalities and to discuss main differences between vanguard and laggard municipality groups, using latest statistical information and the available population survey data. Study employs established four-cluster model for the rural municipality typology and relies on latest official statistics, as well as the data obtained during 2021 “DemoMig” population survey. Study results confirm the validity and utility of the four-cluster model, highlighting extreme disparity in population dynamics between the municipalities assigned to “Population growth” and “Accelerated depopulation” groups. Understanding the differences between the two moderate groups of municipalities – “Balanced population change” and “Moderate depopulation” is found to be highly important from academic and policy perspective. Thorough review of the municipalities included in specific clusters sheds some light on the internal regional processes and factors shaping their demographic situation. Study demonstrates that these factors often go beyond mere differences in spatial location. Different groups show some surprising similarities in their core demographic indicators, which provide grounds for cautious speculations on possible long-term recovery scenarios. Analysis of the survey responses of local residents gives hints for implementing some corrective policy measures.