Genetic status assessment and future development forecast for an isolated giant panda population

The giant panda is a critical species for biodiversity conservation, yet the majority of its subpopulations are at high risk of extinction. To effectively guide conservation efforts and avert local extinctions, ongoing genetic monitoring is crucial. This study, focusing on the vital Daxiangling giant panda population in southwest China, utilized non-invasive genetic sampling and microsatellite markers to assess the genetic diversity and evaluate the impact of releasing captive-bred individuals on population viability. Our findings indicate that conservation efforts have reduced genetic differentiation between subpopulations ( F ST = 0.035). Although the Daxiangling population is small, it has moderate genetic diversity, suggesting potential adaptability. However, the future risks posed by small population size and inbreeding are still significant over the next century. To maintain 90% of current genetic diversity, the Daxiangling population should have at least 80 individuals with a balanced sex ratio. Releasing the existing three female wild-training giant pandas can slightly boost the current genetic diversity, but the long-term survival probability is low (42.9%). The interval of releases (every 5, 2, or 1 year) has little impact on long-term dynamics of population size, whereas the sex of released individuals does have a significant impact. Additionally, the duration of releases (spanning 20, 30, 50 or 100 years) also has notable effects on future population prospects. The most effective strategy to increase population size (to over 80 individuals), maintain the genetic diversity (above 90%), and ensure a high survival probability (above 98%) is to release at least one female panda annually for 50 years or two females annually for 30 years. These findings provide critical guidance for the future conservation of the Daxiangling giant panda population.