Analysis of Vegetation Restoration Potential and Its Influencing Factors on the Loess Plateau: Based on the Potential Realization Model and Spatial Dubin Model

Improvements in vegetation coverage are driven by both resource endowment conditions and policy behaviors. To accurately reflect the vegetation restoration effect after ecological policies, this study used the potential realization model to calculate the potential realization degree of vegetation restoration on the Loess Plateau and to assess the vegetation restoration effect after the Grain for Green Program from 2000 to 2020. Then, the influencing factors were explored using the spatial Dubin model. The results reveal that (1) the EVI value of the Loess Plateau in northern Shaanxi increased from below 0.25 at the beginning of the study to approximately 0.35 by the end, indicating that the green territory of the Loess Plateau gradually expanded to the northwest over the study period, and that the east and west of the Loess Plateau are key areas of vegetation cover for further improvement; (2) compared to the traditional EVI indicator, the potential realization degree can more accurately evaluate the vegetation restoration effect driven by ecological policies; (3) policy intensity is positively correlated with the growth rate of the vegetation restoration potential realization degree by 0.183 and significant at 1% level, making it the primary factor influencing the effect of vegetation restoration. Additionally, annual average precipitation and annual sunshine percentage have significant spatial positive contributions to the improvement of vegetation restoration on the Loess Plateau. The study’s findings are expected to contribute to the development of a scientific basis for adjusting the vegetation restoration policy on the Loess Plateau and enhancing ecological restoration efforts.