Towards an Improved Model for Stability Score Prediction: Harnessing Machine Learning in National Stability Forecasting

In our increasingly interconnected world, national stability holds immense significance, impacting global economics, politics, and security. This study leverages machine learning to forecast stability scores, essential for understanding the intricate dynamics of country stability. By evaluating various regression models, our research aims to identify the most effective methods for predicting these scores, thus deepening our insight into the determinants of national stability. The field of machine learning has seen remarkable progress, with regression models ranging from conventional Linear Regression (LR) to more complex algorithms like Support Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forest (RF), and Gradient Boosting (GB). Each model has distinct strengths and weaknesses, necessitating a comparative analysis to determine the most suitable model for specific predictive tasks. Our methodology involves a comparative examination of models such as LR, Polynomial Regression (PR), Lasso, Ridge, Elastic Net (ENR), Decision Tree (DT), RF, GB, K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and SVR. Performance metrics like Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), and R-squared (R<sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">2</sup>) assess each model’s predictive accuracy using a diverse dataset of country stability indicators. This study’s comprehensive model comparison adds novelty to predictive analytics literature. Our findings reveal significant variations in the performance of different regression models, with certain models exhibiting exceptional predictive accuracy, as indicated by high R<sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">2</sup> values and low error metrics. Notably, models such as LR, SVR, and Elastic Net demonstrate outstanding performance, suggesting their suitability for stability score prediction.