Design, optimization, and inference of biphasic decay of infectious virus particles

Virus population dynamics are driven by counter-balancing forces of production and loss. Whereas viral production arises from complex interactions with susceptible hosts, the loss of infectious virus particles is often approximated as a first-order kinetic process. As such, experimental protocols to measure infectious virus loss are not typically designed to identify non-exponential decay processes. Here, we propose methods to evaluate if an experimental design is adequate to identify multiphasic virus particle decay and to optimize the sampling times of decay experiments, accounting for uncertainties in viral kinetics. First, we evaluate synthetic scenarios of biphasic decays, with varying decay rates and initial proportions of subpopulations. We show that robust inference of multiphasic decay is more likely when the faster decaying subpopulation predominates insofar as early samples are taken to resolve the faster decay rate. Moreover, design optimization involving non-equal spacing between observations increases the precision of estimation while reducing the number of samples. We then apply these methods to infer multiple decay rates associated with the decay of bacteriophage ('phage') ΦD9, an evolved isolate derived from phage Φ21. A pilot experiment confirmed that ΦD9 decay is multiphasic, but was unable to resolve the rate or proportion of the fast decaying subpopulation(s). We then applied a Fisher information matrix-based design optimization method to propose non-equally spaced sampling times. Using this strategy, we were able to robustly estimate multiple decay rates and the size of the respective subpopulations. Notably, we conclude that the vast majority (94%) of the phage ΦD9 population decays at a rate 16-fold higher than the slow decaying population. Altogether, these results provide both a rationale and a practical approach to quantitatively estimate heterogeneity in viral decay.