In search of the holy grail: Post-intervention effects of an unconditional cash transfer program in Zambia

The Zambian government’s Child Grant Program (CGP) provided unconditional cash transfers to households with young children. Previous evidence from an experimental evaluation while the CGP was in place (2010- 2014) showed large, positive program impacts. In this analysis, we use post-program survey data from 2017 to assess whether impacts are sustained. We find that none of the CGP impacts – on outcomes such as food security and child material well-being – persist due to impact fade-out in the treatment group but also catch-up in the control group. Some outcomes (e.g. livestock) stay the same or increase in the treatment group, but they also increase in the control group to the extent that there is convergence. Our results suggest that for households living at the edge of survival, small cash transfers (at US$12 per month) are unlikely to lead to sustained improvements in living standards after the cessation of transfers. • A Government of Zambia unconditional child grant showed large positive impacts after four year • Impacts were on consumption and food security and also on productive activity and savings • Three years after the program ended, all impacts faded out • Small, unconditional transfers to support consumption among ultra-poor households have meaningful impacts but cannot vault ultra-poor households permanently out of poverty • Such transfers will need to be coupled with complementary interventions directly addressing productive capacity in order to reduce long-term structural poverty