Causal Relationship Between the Number of KTX Users, Population, and Housing Market: Focusing on Small- and Medium-Sized Cities on the Gangneung and Jungang Lines

This study compared and analyzed the mutual causal relationship between the number of Korea Train Express (KTX) users, population, and housing market (housing prices, transaction volume) after the opening of KTX, focusing on the number of KTX users in small- and medium-sized cities on the Gangneung and Jungang Lines. The Granger causality test was used for the analysis. The results of this study are summarized as follows. First, since the opening of KTX, the number of its users has significantly affected the population growth rate, housing transaction volume, and housing price index of six small- and medium-sized cities in Gangneung and Chungang, with a particularly meaningful effect on the housing price index. Second, with the opening of KTX, the population growth rate of small and medium-sized cities has significantly affected the housing transaction volume, which, in turn, has impacted the population growth rate more substantially. Third, the opening of KTX has significantly affected the volume of housing transactions in small- and medium-sized cities and housing price index. These results suggest that the presence of KTX can be a positive factor in the sluggish housing market in small- and medium-sized cities, reflected by the recent increase in unsold housing units. Therefore, KTX will be a leverage for the urban regeneration of small- and medium-sized cities that are in danger of extinction due to low fertility rates and population decline, and this study will be a valuable reference for future population and housing market policy formulation.