Climate change projections in temperature and precipitation using cmip6 in Central Mexico

Knowing the spatiotemporal variability of temperature and precipitation, as well as their future projections, is essential to assess environmental risks and plan long-term mitigation and adaptation. In this study, the General Circulation Models (GCMs) HadGEM3-GC31-LL, MRI-ESM2-0 and ACCESS-ESM1-5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) have been used, under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SPP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), to project the minimum and maximum air temperature and the mean annual precipitation in Atlacomulco Rural Development District (ARDD). 30 meteorological stations were used to perform regionalized climate change projections by downscaling using LARS-WG 7. The expected changes were evaluated for three time horizons: near horizon (2021–2040), mid horizon (2041–2060) and far horizon (2061–2080); compared to the historical period (1985–2017). Based on the results, the annual minimum temperature towards the far horizon is projected to increase by 2.0 ºC with SSP2-4.5, and 3.1 ºC with SSP5-8.5; while the annual maximum temperature towards the far horizon is projected to increase between 2.5 ºC with SSP2-4.5 and 3.8 ºC using SSP5-8.5. Precipitation shows an increase for SSP2-4.5 in the near and middle horizons with 15.7 and 42.5 mm.year−1, respectively, while the largest decrease is projected towards the middle horizon of SSP5-8.5 with − 26.3 mm.year−1. The findings of this study provide detailed information on climate change projections in the ARDD and can serve as a useful guide for the management of different ecosystems.