An estimate of the Arctic climate sensitivity based on the Arrhenius’s rule

Abstract Estimating the magnitude of the Arctic equilibrium climate sensitivity is key for understanding the climate dynamics of this polar region. Using a linear regression model, we find that the Arctic equilibrium climate sensitivity is 3.61°C. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that an estimate of the Arctic equilibrium climate sensitivity is provided. The obtained results confirm that this region is more sensitive to climate change than the rest of the world. The Arctic sensitivity is almost one and a half times that of the global sensitivity. In this paper, we have used the estimated Arctic equilibrium climate sensitivity to obtain projections of the Arctic temperature under different forcing scenarios.