Adoption of Electric Vehicles and Forecasting Air Emissions in the Metropolitan Area of Mexico City by 2050

Densely populated urban megacities, such as the Metropolitan Area of Mexico City, face the ongoing deterioration of air quality. Emissions from industrail factories and internal combustion vehicles are the main sources of pollutants. We have evaluated different transition trends from internal combustion engine vehicles as bus, truck and van, and motorcycle to electric vehicles through 2050. The total vehicle growth follows a second-degree polynomial trend. Bus growth exhibits a linear trend. Truck and van growth display a second-degree polynomial trend. Motorcycle growth also follows a second-degree polynomial trend. We found that the most significant reductions in transportation emissions are observed in CO2, followed by NOx, volatile organic compound (VOC), and particulate matter, with light and heavy vehicles being the primary contributors to total emissions. Mexico City serves as a pilot laboratory where both the challenges and potential solutions to an issue affecting millions of citizens can be observed. If proven effective and practical, these solutions could be applied to other megacities.