Future yield growth in Africa mitigates agricultural greenhouse gas emissions

Abstract Increased use of nitrogen fertilizer and other agricultural inputs is important for raising crop yields and meeting growing food demand, but risks increasing greenhouse gas emissions. We project net greenhouse gas emissions from crop production in Africa in 2050 under different scenarios of yield growth. We find that increasing yields would reduce emissions-even if it requires greater use of nitrogen fertilizer, fuel, and pesticides-primarily due to avoided cropland expansion. If Africa more than doubled yields from 2025 levels to meet future food demand while avoiding cropland expansion, an estimated 2.0 gigatons of carbon-dioxide equivalent per year in emissions could be avoided, equivalent to nearly 81% of all Africa’s emissions from agriculture, forestry, and land use in 2021.