Quantitative Impacts of Socio-Economic Changes on REDD+ Benefits in Xishuangbanna Rainforests

REDD+ is a UN-backed framework aimed at reducing carbon emissions in developing countries through sustainable forest management and the protection and enhancement of forest carbon stocks. These are key goals for the international community to achieve climate change mitigation through forestry. REDD+ programs deliver carbon, environmentally based, and social benefits through incentives provided to local societies. This study focuses on a quantitative assessment of the REDD+ framework from the perspective of localized socio-economic shifts. The drivers–pressures–state–impact and partial least squares–structural equation models were employed to evaluate impacts of socio-economic change on multiple REDD+ benefits and their influential factors in the tropical rainforests of Xishuangbanna, China. The results revealed that land-use changes form essential and complex links between socio-economic and eco-environmental changes. Socio-economic shifts in the recent twenty years in Xishuangbanna impacted carbon emissions mainly through land-use change (impact coefficient = 0.909), which was nearly three times the impact of land-use change on environmental degradation (0.322) and more than twice its impact on social benefits (0.363). Such unbalanced impacts suggest a need to optimize local policies through contextualized measures in a way that effectively addresses livelihood improvements, enhancing carbon storage and environmental services to achieve REDD+ targets in the tropical rainforests of China.