The developmental sequences of events underlying persistence in criminal convictions during adulthood

The relationship between multiple vulnerabilities experienced and accumulated during development, and later life-course persistent offending trajectories is well-established. However, no studies have yet systematically examined how the sequences in which these vulnerabilities are experienced may influence the persistence of criminal behaviour into adulthood. Therefore, this work investigated how the sequences in which risk factors were experienced may contribute to accruing adult criminal convictions among males with justice involvement during adolescence. To this end, we employed the rich and detailed Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development, a longitudinal study that followed 411 boys from South London from age 8 to age 61. Using an innovative methodological approach, the sequences of risk factors experienced at ages 8–10, 12–14, and 16–18 were mapped and analysed as predictors of adult convictions. Childhood vulnerabilities such as parenting-related problems, low attainment, and risk-taking behaviour at ages 8–10 emerged as key starting points for the developmental sequences leading to adult convictions. At ages 12–14, hyperactivity and low IQ were identified as significant risk factors, followed by school failure and sexual promiscuity at ages 16–18. A very small number of prevalent sequences of risk factors appeared to promote the continuity of convictions from adolescence into adulthood. Our findings suggest that enhancing parenting strategies and fostering school success may prevent the cascade of risk factors promoting life-course persistent offending trajectories. At the transition to adulthood, the most common risk factors and crime-predictive sequences seem to undermine key opportunities for earlier crime desistance. • Few, highly prevalent risk sequences predict persistent offending trajectories • Early interventions on magnetic risks may disrupt life-course persistent pathways • Some youth risk factors may delay turning points, leading to late crime desistance