Reliability analysis of ultimate strength of FPSO based on maximum entropy method

Due to prolonged offshore production, the structural reliability of floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) units is continually challenged. This study evaluates the structural reliability of FPSOs over their design life, taking into account uncertainties in material properties, plate thickness, and load. The ultimate strength of the FPSO hull girder is determined using a direct calculation method based on an assumed section stress distribution, and the probability distribution of the limit state function is established using the maximum entropy method (MEM). The failure probability of the FPSO during its design life is ascertained through direct integration of the probability distribution function. This failure probability is subsequently compared with results obtained using direct Monte Carlo simulation. The findings indicate that the MEM, as introduced in this study, can rapidly and accurately determine the ultimate strength reliability of FPSO hull girders, providing a crucial reference for the structural safety assessment of FPSOs.