Anthrax Risk Assessment for the Sverdlovsk Region Using Multivariate Analysisand Geoinformation Technologies

Introduction: Anthrax remains relevant due to the almost ubiquitous spread in the Russian Federation of anthrax stationary hazardous areas and soil foci. The Sverdlovsk Region is distinguished by large anthrax epizootics in the past. Objective: To assess anthrax risks based on ranking results using optimized methodology of multiple factor analysis and geoinformation technologies in the Sverdlovsk Region. Materials and methods: The archival and updated data on anthrax by the Sverdlovsk Regional Office of the Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing were examined. The administrative territories of the region were ranked using a previously developed multivariate analysis technique based on the determination of the rank values of characteristics of the stationary hazardous areas (R1-8) and supplemented by a correction factor to ∑R1-8, the values of which depend on the number of the intra-subject administrative territories. The introduced adjustment makes it possible to unify the ranking methodology and compare the risks of infection in the regions of Russia. Results: In 58 % of the administrative territories of the region, low and medium anthrax risks were established in the presence of high-risk territories (42 %), mostly in the south and east of the region. The location of high-risk territories and up to 70 % of stationary hazardous sites correlates with natural zones favorable for the pathogen (gray forest, floodplain soils in broad-leaved, forest-steppe landscapes, etc.). Conclusions: In recent decades, the Sverdlovsk Region has been characterized by relative well-being in terms of anthrax despite the presence its risk factors. The ranking results will ensure better efficiency of epidemiological surveillance of this infection.