Characteristics of Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Coastal Wetland Landscape Patterns and Prediction Analysis—A Case Study of Panjin Wetland, China

The Panjin Wetland is a complex ecosystem comprising coastal and inland wetland. It has an important function in wetland conservation and ecological. For this research, we quantified the landscape type changes in Panjin Wetland from 1992–2022, and analyzed the interaction between the combined PLUS and InVEST models to predict the future evolution of spatial and temporal patterns of habitat quality (HQ) and landscape patterns in Panjin Wetland. The results showed the following: (1) The change in natural wetland area from 1992 to 2022 generally showed a decreasing trend, the landscape patterns showed a trend of fragmentation. In 2032, the ecological protection scenarios showed an increase of 79.51 km2 of natural wetland, while the other scenarios showed a decrease. (2) In 2022, the average habitat quality score is 0.441, and in 2032, the average habitat quality scores in the natural development scenarios, farmland protection scenarios, ecological protection scenarios, and economic development scenarios are 0.427, 0.448, 0.438, and 0.416, respectively. (3) The outcomes of this study offer insights into the sustainable management and rational development of coastal wetland, thereby contributing to the existing body of knowledge in the field of coastal wetland research, particularly in the areas of land planning and forecasting.