Dynamic effects of psychiatric vulnerability, loneliness and isolation on distress during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic's impact on mental health is challenging to quantify because pre-existing risk, disease burden and public policy varied across individuals, time and regions. Longitudinal, within-person analyses can determine whether pandemic-related changes in social isolation impacted mental health. We analyzed time-varying associations between psychiatric vulnerability, loneliness, psychological distress and social distancing in a US-based study during the first year of the pandemic. We surveyed 3,655 participants about psychological health and COVID-19-related circumstances every 2 weeks for 6 months. We combined self-reports with regional social distancing estimates and a classifier that predicted probability of psychiatric diagnosis at enrollment. Loneliness and psychiatric vulnerability both impacted psychological distress. Loneliness and distress were also linked to social isolation and stress associated with distancing, and psychiatric vulnerability shaped how regional distancing affected loneliness across time. Public health policies should address loneliness when encouraging social distancing, particularly in those at risk for psychiatric conditions.