Germany election should result in greater stability

Significance The centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) maintains a considerable lead in the polls. CDU leader Friedrich Merz has remained cautious over whether he would prefer to form a government with the SPD or the Greens, as the FDP will lack the seats. Impacts Relations with France should improve under the CDU, although tensions will remain, especially over defence and trade policy. Should SPD leader Olaf Scholz step down, SPD Secretary Lars Klingbeil or Defence Minister Boris Pistorius are the most likely to take over. Despite being the second-most popular party, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has no prospect of being in the next coalition.