Assessment of Scarcity, Toxicity, and Circularity Risks in the European Thermoelectric Market: A Focus on Tellurium, Antimony, Bismuth, and Lead

This study assesses supply risks for critical raw materials (CRMs) essential to Europe’s thermoelectric (TE) technology, which transforms heat into electricity. Given the EU’s heavy reliance on imports for key materials like tellurium, antimony, bismuth, and lead, the analysis incorporates market forecasting, scarcity quantification, and Monte Carlo simulations to model demand and supply risks. This study reveals that tellurium poses high risks due to scarcity and potential geopolitical impacts, with antimony and bismuth at moderate risk, and lead presenting notable health hazards. The findings suggest the necessity of circular supply chains and material alternatives to mitigate resource, environmental, and geopolitical challenges for sustainable TE development in Europe. Moreover, there is a pressing need to update and expand data availability for materials like tellurium to enable more robust risk assessments in the immediate future.