A Simple Drainage-Friendly Approach for Estimating Waterlogging Impacts on Cotton Yields Regarding Accompanying High Temperatures

Due to climate change, cotton production is extensively restricted by waterlogging, especially under accompanying high temperatures. Yield production functions are powerful tools in agricultural water management, but there is a lack of consideration for crop dynamic growth and the impact of accompanied high temperatures during waterlogging. In this work, to simulate cotton yields under waterlogging regarding accompanying high temperatures, a comprehensive stress index was proposed, and a dynamic yield production function model was accordingly developed. The model was calibrated and evaluated by using multi-year and multi-site experimental data in the Hubei Province of China, and, then, it was applied under various waterlogging scenarios. The results showed that including the impact of accompanying high temperatures can effectively improve model performance, and the temperature threshold for triggering this additional impact was 30 °C. The dynamic model exhibited satisfactory performance during both calibration and evaluation, with low relative mean absolute error values (RMAE = 12.12% and 21.51%) and low coefficient of residual mass values (CRM = -0.028 and 0.063). According to model simulations, even under the same amount of excessive water, yield losses can vary from 3.90% to 33.93% due to different waterlogging timings and air temperature conditions. In summary, the present model is a convenient and powerful tool for crop drainage schedules and sustainable agriculture under global climate change.