Reeve’s Muntjac (Muntiacus reevesi) Habitat Suitability Under Climate Change Scenarios in Hupingshan National Nature Reserve, China

Climate change and human disturbance are critical factors affecting the habitat distribution of wild animals, with implications for management strategies such as protecting migration corridors, habitat restoration, and species conservation. In the Hupingshan National Nature Reserve (NNR), Reeve's muntjac (<i>Muntiacus reevesi</i>) is a key prey species for the South China tiger (<i>Panthera tigris amoyensis</i>), which is extinct in the wild and targeted for reintroduction by the Chinese government. Thus, understanding the habitat distribution and abundance of Reeve's muntjac is essential to ensure the survival and sustainability of reintroduced tiger populations. Despite significant conservation efforts, the impacts of climate change and human disturbance on Reeve's muntjac habitat distribution in Hupingshan NNR remain unclear, though these factors could necessitate adaptive tiger management strategies due to shifts in prey abundance. In this study, we employed an optimized MaxEnt model to assess current habitat distribution and identify key environmental variables influencing the habitat distribution of Reeve's muntjac. Assuming non-climatic environmental factors will remain constant over the next century, we projected future habitat distribution under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126 and SSP585) for the mid-century (2050s) and the late-century (2090s). Comparative analyses of current and projected habitat areas revealed potential impacts of climate change on this species. MaxEnt outputs classified habitat suitability into high, medium, and low levels. Results showed that climatic and human disturbance factors contributed 35.2% and 49.4% to habitat suitability, respectively. Under the SSP126 scenario, habitats with decreased suitability covered 0 km² in the 2050s, expanding slightly to 4.2 km² in the 2090s, while those with increased suitability spanned 491.1 km² (2050s) and 463.2 km² (2090s). Under the SSP585 scenario, habitats with decreased suitability covered 10.2 km² in the 2050s and 431.8 km² in the 2090s. Habitats with increased suitability were comparatively smaller under SSP585, covering 162.0 km² (2050s) and 1.1 km² (2090s). These findings suggest that while mid-century climate projections (SSP126 and SSP585) may support Reeve's muntjac's survival, habitat loss is projected by 2090s (SSP126). Thus, future climate change may lead to decreased habitat suitability and increased fragmentation, raising extinction risks for Reeves's muntjac. Mitigating these effects could involve establishing migration corridors, minimizing human disturbances, and potentially supplementing prey populations with captive-bred prey. Such measures are essential to support the South China tiger reintroduction plan and help ensure that prey availability remains sufficient for sustaining reintroduced tiger populations.