Predicting high‐performance decathlon career best

The decathlon is a 10-event discipline in the sport of track and field, typically offered only for men at the elite level of competition (heptathlon is the complementary event for women). It is composed of 10 distinct events contested over 2 days. Using event-specific coefficients, marks are converted to scores, which sum to produce an overall score. Ten events that share some underlying features, but also some disparate features, create a challenge for coaches and sports administrators in identifying potential elite talent and developing it optimally across the career. In this investigation, decathletes were profiled on the basis of keeping performances ≥6400 points and including only those participants who competed in ≥4 years <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:semantics><mml:mrow><mml:mo>(</mml:mo> <mml:mrow><mml:mi>n</mml:mi> <mml:mo>=</mml:mo> <mml:mn>642</mml:mn></mml:mrow> <mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow> <mml:annotation>$( {n = 642} )$</mml:annotation></mml:semantics> </mml:math> . Using gamma generalized linear regression models, the first-season best mark and improvement in each event were related to all-time career best. Coefficients were compared to infer priorities for elite decathlete selection (using first-season best marks in each event) and development (using the delta or improvement in each event). These data show that the most crucial event for identifying an athlete with a future potential elite all-time career best is the pole vault, followed by the javelin throw, long jump and shot put. For optimal career development, the data suggest athletes obtain the most return by focusing on improvement in the pole vault and long jump.