Consequences of water and land scarcity and unhealthy diets on the productive capacity of the middle East and North Africa

Water and land scarcity and their impacts on global food and water security and healthy diet represents a paramount challenge, especially for vulnerable regions like the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region A significant research gap persists in understanding the impact of climate change, population growth, and the overexploitation of water resources on the socioeconomic and political performance of countries. Therefore, we aim to investigate the effects of water and land scarcity, and unhealthy diets on the productive capacity index of MENA countries over a 20-year period (2001 to 2020) using time series trend, panel data econometric modeling and the fixed effects method. Accordingly, the results of the fixed effects model analysis showed that renewable water resources, arable to agriculture land ratio and exposure to a diet low in whole grains and legumes had the greatest negative impact on the productive capacity index of MENA countries, while the institutional quality and education level had the greatest positive impact on the index. The visualization analysis also revealed a significant diversity in water and land resources among MENA countries. • Water and land scarcity, and unhealthy diets decreased productive capacity of MENA. • The fixed effect model was used to analyze the impact of land and water scarcity and unhealthy diets on MENA's productive capacity • Climate change, population growth, and water overuse exacerbate water and land scarcity, and unhealthy diets. • Water, arable land scarcity, exposure to low whole grains and legumes and institutional quality and education indicators affected productive capacity. • MENA can enhance water and food security, and health by a Water-Agriculture-Health commission.