Industry-specific Labour Demand, Post-prison Employment and Recidivism – Evidence from Finland

Abstract Objectives To test the effect of local, industry-specific labour demand on employment and recidivism following a person’s release from a prison in Finland. Methods This study was an observational study based on administrative data. The data included all working-aged men ( N = 33,270) released from prison between 2007 and 2018 in Finland. We analysed the industry of the employers descriptively and studied the effect of labour demand on employment and recidivism rates post-release with a linear probability model. Labour demand was measured by counting new employments that began in the first 30 days post-release in the region the subject resided in at the time of release. Employment and recidivism were analysed with a 6- and 12-month follow-up. Results Of the study population, 11.1% were employed and 44.7% recidivated in the first 6 months. We found the most common employers to be the construction and manufacturing industries along with temporary work agencies. Our models indicated that the low-skill labour demand in construction increased the likelihood of employment (β = 0.0108, se = 0.0026) but did not reduce the risk of recidivism (β = 0.0030, se = 0.0045). Conclusions Higher labour demand may not lead to lower recidivism in all contexts. As the effect of labour demand may be driven by specific societal or labour market characteristics, further research should focus on identifying the characteristics that affect recidivism and post-prison employment. As this study may only be generalisable to the Finnish prison population, similar studies are needed from varied contexts.