Avoidance rather than change: What influence does the price shock for mineral oils have on the mobility behaviour of users of motorised private transport in Germany?

One of the most significant challenges facing the world today is rapid climate change and the negative effects it is having on our environment. The transport sector is responsible for high CO2 emissions, and will have to make fundamental contributions to climate goal targets in the medium to long-term future. In the past, far-reaching measures have been tested regarding how to encourage people to switch from their own cars or motorised private transport (MPT) to the more emission-friendly local public transport (PT). Previous projects have only been able to convince people to switch temporarily through subsidised public transport. Detached from the ecological aspects, the turmoil in the global economy at the end of February 2022 resulted in a price shock in mineral oil prices, which shifted the primary focus of mobility behaviour from ecological to economic concerns. The logistic regression analysis of a quantitative survey (n = 611) in Germany confirms that a large number of journeys taken via private car were saved due to the increased price. However, despite high mineral oil prices, travelling by private car remains the primary means of transport for many people. Switching to public transport is particularly noticeable among women. This is due, among other things, to their lower incomes. Contrary to results of prior studies, the present analysis shows that participants from large cities have saved fewer trips by private car compared to people living in rural areas, even though large cities generally have a denser infrastructure with a more comprehensive range of mobility options. Travel time and reliability are the main factors in our respondents' choice of transport mode and are more compatible in large cities with denser public transport than in rural areas. The avoided car journeys are predominantly in the leisure sector and have not been substituted by other means of transport.