Parameter Setting Examination of Social Dynamic Simulation Using a Multi-layer Network

Considering the challenges related to the urban space in different countries, analytical tools are required to quantify these problems, evaluate different urban policies and scenarios, and suggest alternative solutions to contribute to a reduction in urban challenges and sustainable urban development. The countries such as Japan, which are heavily challenged by population decline, society aging, and birth fall need analytical tools to address these challenges and analyze problems related to land use and transportation by considering socio-demographic characteristics of the urban space. Existing studies have developed social dynamic models to address these problems; and social dynamics networks may illustrate a large complex urban structure better compared to social static networks, especially using a multi-layer network due to considering the complex interactions within different entities of urban structures which generate multiple types of relationships, temporal changes, and other various complications. However, these models have not been evaluated from a sensitivity analysis point of view. The sensitivity and stability analysis can show the characteristic results of simulation models and are essential for confirming model validity with various parameter settings. Therefore, this study is aimed to examine the characteristic results of social dynamics simulation models and to confirm their applicability and efficiency in the evaluation of different urban policies in real and virtual cities. Furthermore, the study examines the behavior of the simulation models associated with the city`s demography, land use, and transportation system. Additionally, the study investigates the correlation between the birth rate, land prices, and transportation costs with the future situation of the city by analyzing the social dynamic model`s simulation results. The result of this study shows if the social dynamic models can evaluate different urban policies such as changes in the population, land prices, and transportation accessibility.