Modal Split and Cost-Sensitivity Analysis for Various Travel Modes Using Calibrated Parameters in NL Modeling

The present study demonstrates the use of the nested-logit (NL) approach in modal-split modeling with input related to the total cost of travel determined based on the cost of travel per km, and the cost of travel time per minute incurred by trip-makers. The calibrated best value of the scaling parameter that simulated the actual travel pattern as in Amritsar city in India was identified based on a trial-and-error approach, followed by cost-based sensitivity analyses. The study revealed that an increase in the combined costs of travel by private modes including intermediate public transport (IPT) modes resulted in a higher estimated ridership by public modes of travel such as mini-buses. Similar analyses were performed to estimate the ridership for private modes Vs IPT modes. One of the key findings of the cost-sensitivity analysis is that even when the total cost of travel by private modes including IPT was increased by up to 35%, the ridership by these modes remained more dominant than that of public modes. In Amritsar, trip-makers rely on independently operated minibuses and IPT alternatives that provide shared rides in place of buses. The insights provided can help formulate policies for promoting public transport modes.