Transit Ridership in Toronto and COVID-19: Statistical and Spatial Analysis of Ridership Changes During the Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented disruptions to travel patterns, resulting in a significant decline in transit ridership in Toronto. This exploratory study employs statistical and spatial analysis to investigate ridership changes during different time periods corresponding to changes in government-imposed mobility restrictions. Our results reveal that ridership increased following changes in mobility restrictions, with mixed ridership trends observed during intermittent lockdown periods. The spatial analysis highlights the relative homogeneity of ridership changes across census tracts with bus-only service, while census tracts with subway stops exhibited greater heterogeneity. The findings suggest that bus service users were more resilient to external factors compared to subway service users. These results provide valuable insights into the effects of government-imposed restrictions on transit ridership, highlighting the usefulness of these analyses as powerful tools for transit agencies to promote public transit usage and plan for future scenarios.