Evaluating the effect of subarctic weather conditions on road traffic intensity

Regions with a subarctic climate are characterized by long winters, heavy snowfall and extremely cold temperatures. Weather conditions can change rapidly and are subject to a high level of seasonal variation. These factors influence drivers’ decisions regarding the trips they have to take. Existing literature has confirmed that adverse weather decreases traffic volumes, but no study has yet employed comprehensive and historical data from a subarctic climate. This article examines the effect of weather conditions on traffic intensity in the Northwest Territories using traffic counter data from four locations along the territory's highway network between 1993 and 2019. We use a linear regression model with specifications that control for time-fixed effects and location-fixed effects to isolate the influence of temperature, rain, snow and wind on traffic volumes. To date, few studies have examined the effect of temperature, rain, snow and wind in an extreme cold weather climate. Our study also validates the conclusions of international literature in the Northern Canadian context. It is both a contribution to transportation and circumpolar scholarship.