Forecasting Arctic sea-ice drift: insights from two case studies

Abstract The two main large-scale features of Arctic sea-ice drift are the Beaufort Gyre and the Transpolar Drift Stream. They exhibit strong intraseasonal and interannual variability. Winter 2016/17 showed increased cyclone activity, leading to the collapse of the Beaufort Sea high and the reversal of the Beaufort Gyre. Winter 2020/21 displayed decreased cyclone activity and intense anticyclonic ice transport in the Beaufort Gyre. Here we show that the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’s (ECMWF) extended-range (46 days) retrospective forecasts were able to predict the ice motion during these cases. The initial contrasts in sea level pressure, surface winds and ice drift were well captured, and their temporal evolution—including the reversal of the usual drift direction—well reproduced by the forecasts initialized about a week before the event. Sea-ice thickness in the forecast exhibited initial errors even greater than 1 m that persisted throughout the forecast and negatively affected the ice speed forecast. Despite these shortcomings, the dynamic forecast outperformed the persistence and climatology forecast and represented the observed relation between surface winds and ice drift well. The benefit of dynamic forecasts is especially clear in cases that differ from climatology, like the one we focus on.