Determination of the maximum LV grid hosting capacity for a rapid integration of photovoltaics, electric vehicles and heat pumps

With the rapid integration of electric vehicles, heat pumps and photovoltaic systems into the low-voltage grids, the distribution system operators are faced with the challenge of developing their grids. However, traditional grid reinforcements are time and resources consuming and cost-intensive. Therefore, this paper proposes a novel approach based on the monte-carlo simulation to determine the maximum grid hosting capacity. The approach focuses on discovering the weak points in the grids – referred to as bottlenecks – and the critical year when a bottleneck is expected. This is achieved through an iterative monte-carlo distribution of the electric vehicles, heat pumps and photovoltaic systems into the grids in addition to a load flow analysis per distribution. By repeating the calculation for the specific scenario values, the maximum grid hosting capacity is determined per low-voltage grid. To deduce the maximum grid hosting capacity, the bottlenecks and the critical year for all low-voltage grids operated by a distribution system operator, the results of the weak point analysis are fed into a forecast tool. This tool scales the results of the weak point analysis results of selected representative low-voltage grids to all remaining low-voltage grids. Hence, the maximum grid hosting capacity is determined for low-voltage grids.