Risk-oriented assessment of LV distribution network hosting capacity for electric vehicles

The hosting capacity (HC) concept was initially referred only to the capacity of a distribution network (DN) to integrate distributed generation (DG) without jeopardising the correct and reliable operation of DNs. Nowadays, this concept is also extended to the capacity of integrating electric vehicle (EV) charging stations. Estimating when and how critical operating conditions can occur in the network due to the consequent increased load is necessary for Distribution System Operators (DSOs). They must find new planning solutions that consider the risk of technical constraint violations to keep it at a level set below a predefined acceptable threshold. On the other hand, looking for zero-risk planning solutions appears inadequate or too expensive in future smart and dynamic distribution scenarios. Since there is great variability in EVs and charging station specifications, EV drivers’ habits, load/generation profiles, and network data, generalisable results can arise only from a suitable probabilistic approach that can account for the relevant sources of uncertainties. In this light, this paper proposes a methodology for evaluating the EV HC of real LV DNs in different foreseen scenarios that consider the growth of demand, DERs, and charging stations simultaneously. The proposed methodology is applied to typical real LV networks, whose HC is expressed in terms of risk of technical constraint violation associated with calculated EVs’ penetration levels.