Assessing LV networks hosting capacity for increasing PV penetration via Monte-Carlo simulations

Due to the rapid increase in residential PV capacity, it gets more and more difficult for an LV grid to absorb power at peak hours due to overvoltage issues, causing concerns to DSOs and prosumers who are temporarily unable to inject power into the grid. Monte-Carlo simulations were performed with a parametrized LV feeder model and with input parameters representing typical feeder characteristics in Belgium, in order to gain insights on the risk factors for PV-related overvoltages. The simulations’ outputs highlighted the influence of the different feeder characteristics and among the influential parameters, the feeder cable type presents the largest impact, with a notable influence of the neutral conductor impedance. The overall risk for overvoltage occurrences obtained in the simulations was relatively aligned with the number of complaints actually received by the DSO, confirming on a high-level basis the validity of the modelling approach and the statistical exercise. Without counteracting measures, the risk of prosumers enduring overvoltages is expected to increase fourfold in the future, based on projected PV penetration levels in households. Similar Monte-Carlo approaches can be used to assess the effectiveness of different possible mitigation measures, although it is important to keep in mind that the quality of the statistical outputs is largely dependent on the quality of the input parameters used for the simulations.