Probabilistic adoption scenarios of distributed energy resources in residential buildings for a geospatial projection of the electrical load

This paper presents a method that assesses the likelihood of building-level Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) adoption, factoring in the influence of other pre-installed DER technologies. Utilizing a case study in Hamburg, Germany, we estimate the adoption likelihood of Air-Source Heat Pumps (ASHP) in residential buildings, considering the influence of already installed Photovoltaic (PV) systems. The results uncover the expected ASHP adoption pattern in Hamburg, highlighting the spatial variations in adoption rates, particularly between urban and rural settings. The results also highlight the varying impact of PV on ASHP adoption. They illustrate how the presence of PV systems may affect the adoption likelihood of ASHP, depending on building features such as type or current heating system. Our case study methodology effectively uses data insights to identify potential DER growth areas, critical for grid operators in enhancing hosting capacity. Specifically, by identifying flexibilities, operators can maximize hosting capacity without expanding the grid. When expansion is necessary, understanding future load distributions enables more informed infrastructure investment. The comprehensive approach, as exemplified in our Hamburg case study, follows a generic framework, which can be used for similar analyses in other regions or with other technologies.