Distribution system operation considering PV forecasting probability distribution based on sky status

The intermittent outputs from photovoltaic (PV) based on weather conditions make distribution network management difficult. Probabilistic methods using a probability distribution, such as normal or beta distribution, have been proposed to address this issue. However, an error occurs during the actual power generation, which may pose limitations in expressing it as a single distribution. Accordingly, assuming PV uncertainty as a probability distribution, a prediction error occurs and affects the voltage operation of the distribution network. A voltage control method based on the on-load tap changer was proposed herein that considers the overvoltage generation probability derived via Monte Carlo simulation and a PV generation model according to the sky status. In addition, the effectiveness of the proposed method in hosting capacity analysis compared with that of the method wherein a single distribution is used.