Research on the development and application of fire real-time risk model for nuclear power plants

Nuclear safety is the lifeline of nuclear power development, and Risk Monitor (RM) is a crucial tool for the safety analysis of nuclear power plants. RM has been extensively researched and applied by various research institutes and nuclear power plants. Currently, mainstream research and applications primarily focus on the development and use of internal event probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) within RM. However, there has been limited research on developing fire PSA models to reflect the real-time impact of changes in plant configuration on fire model logic and risk. The fire protection design and operation of a nuclear power plant must meet the overall risk objectives of the plant, making fire risk management an essential aspect of plant risk management. Therefore, developing a real-time risk modeling approach for fire is necessary for a more comprehensive and in-depth application of risk guidelines. This paper focuses on the M310 unit and studies the fire PSA model based on the benchmark fire PSA model. It also examines the fire PSA technical elements within the RM development method, addressing key elements such as initiating events, operation/standby trains, ignition frequency, and other modeling components. Furthermore, an example is provided to illustrate the importance of considering real-time fire risk comprehensively when performing real-time risk configuration and management in a power plant. This research lays the foundation for achieving plant-wide risk monitoring.